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The signal and the noise : why so many predictions--fail but some don't / Nate Silver.

Author: Silver, Nate, 1978-

Imprint:New York : Penguin Press, 2012.

Description534 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.

Note:A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.

Bibliography Note:Includes bibliographical references (p. 459-514) and index.



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Author:
Silver, Nate, 1978-
Subject:
Forecasting.
Forecasting -- Methodology.
Forecasting -- History.
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Knowledge, Theory of.